Forecasting the Number of Undergraduate Students Using the ARIMA Model

Abstract

This research aims to investigate the number of undergraduate students predicted to enroll in Construction Management course at the Faculty of Architecture and Design, Rajamangala University of Technology Rattanakosin and to formulate forecasting model by ARIMA for appropriate enrollment number estimation during 2017-2021. 18 time series data used in this investigation comprised of three enrollment types through Quota, University Admission and Office of the Higher Education Commission. The results reveals the number of undergraduate students forecasted to enroll in the Construction Management course at the Faculty of Architecture and Design, Rajamangala University of Technology Rattanakosin were 1) through Quota 30, 31, 37, 41, and 46 for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively 2) through University Admission 83, 63, 89, 73 and 96 for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively and 3) through Office of the Higher Education Commission, a constant 10 students predicted to enroll through the period from 2017-2021.