Forecast Demand for Raw Materials in Order to Plan Appropriate Order Case Study: Vasatwo Shop

Abstract

The objective of this research is (1) to study the method of forecasting suitable raw materials (2) to plan the demand for raw materials to be appropriate and sufficient for the needs. Since Vasatwo shop has insufficient raw material for use Affecting the production of the product to meet the demand Therefore losing the opportunity to sell products The study therefore collected the data used in the past 2 years forecast from popular products and insufficient raw materials. By applying 7 different forecasting techniques. The results showed that 1) when forecasting the data in 7 forecasting methods using Exponential Smoothing (ES) Exponential Smoothing (ES) method with Mean Squared error The minimum (MSE) error is 86.22. To find the Variability Coefficient (VC) coefficient, the value is 0.04, which is less than 0.25, indicating that the product demand level is stable. The study therefore uses the ordering principle that saves Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) and reorder point (ROP) to calculate the appropriate order quantity. 2) When receiving the appropriate amount of order calculation ( EOQ) and (ROP) enable the planning of raw material orders in the next year By using the data to plan, if Vasatwo stores use raw materials to the raw material level at 47 rolls, the new order point (ROP) must be ordered in order to increase the raw material level to be equal to the level of economical order (EOQ). Or level 71 rolls, reducing the chance of lacking raw materials And will have to purchase raw materials every 16 days and can do this for a period of 1 year and compare the total cost of ordering old and new raw materials With the cost of ordering raw materials, including the original model, equal to 24,362.80 baht and the new format is 21,725.81 baht, allowing the total cost to be reduced by 2,636.99 baht, resulting in saving the cost of ordering raw materials is 10.82%