Demand Forecast of Raw Materials for Production Planning Popcorn Case Study: ABC Cineplex Theater

Abstract

The study aimed to analyze and compare the predictions. The forecast for demand for raw materials for production planning popcorn. Using data for 36 months of the year 2559 - 2561 will be to find the most appropriate way to predict in advance. Forecasting methods used in this research are 7 ways how moving average (Moving Average) method of forecasting Weighted Moving Average method of forecasting Exponential Smoothing methods of forecasting Double Moving Average forecasting method, a Double Exponential Smoothing Methods. forecast Holt-Winter's Method for Additive Seasonal Effects and methods of forecasting. Holt-Winter's Method for Multiplicative Seasonal Effects selecting the appropriate method of predicting the average squared error (Mean Square Error:. MSE), the lowest results showed that the forecasting method to model the most appropriate method of moving average (Moving Average) The average square error (Mean Square Error: MSE) at least address. 5572.93 After that, the researchers used the method for the determination of the appropriate order (Economic Order Quantity: EOQ) as well as for the purchase of unique (Reorder Point: ROP) for proper planning. The theater is required to purchase at one time to 971 bags with the repeated orders to 194 bags, which can affect the total cost before the update are 14,254 baht Adjusted total cost is 5,759 baht total cost. lower than 8495 baht or 59.60%. ROP) for proper planning. The theater is required to purchase at one time to 971 bags with the repeated orders to 194 bags, which can affect the total cost before the update are 14,254 baht Adjusted total cost is 5,759 baht total cost. lower than 8495 baht or 59.60%. ROP) for proper planning. The theater is required to purchase at one time to 971 bags with the repeated orders to 194 bags, which can affect the total cost before the update are 14,254 baht Adjusted total cost is 5,759 baht total cost. lower than 8495 baht or 59.60%.