The Probabilistic Modelling to Analysis of bidding in construction project of government via program

Abstract

A construction tender is a method to allow the project owner to know the duration for completing the project with the lowest price of each contactor. If more contractors enter into the tender, this creates higher competitiveness resulting in the offers of very low price. The purpose of this study is to create a probability model to be used in the governmental tender by relying on the price that wins actual tenders to find out suitable values. This research has chosen the most complete case study and the tool used in this study is an application for creating random number model. After that the information is used for analysis of price that can win the tender and profit that is expected. As the result, the maximum expected profit is 0.20%, chance to win the competitors is 4% , our amount of money is 68,398,898 baht, the amount of money of the competitor A is 71,732,122 baht and the amount of money of the competitor B is 71,890,290 baht. If 100% success for the tender is required, a loss up to 20% is in need.