Planning to Order Fresh Chicken to Reduce the Cost of Kai Yang Wichian Buri by Means of Forecasting

Abstract

The purposes of this research were to search for the minimum deviation of the forecasting model, to plan the ordering for accordance the sales by forecasting errors and for cutting back on cost. The research proposed 5 models of forecasting, namely simple moving average, double moving average, exponential moving average and linear trend equation for forecasting grilled chicken 90 days backward. Compare the forecasting errors by mean absolute deviation or MAD and mean squared error or MSE. Choose the forecasting model which has minimum of the deviation. Due to the deviation of the forecasting model could show the accuracy and proximity with truth value. Plan the future ordering by the forecasting model. The research found that the forecast errors from the proposed double moving average model were least. The mean absolute deviation of double moving average model equal to 55.47 and the mean squared error of double moving average model equal to 1367.27 . After planning the grilled chicken order by forecasting errors found that the enterprise have had sufficient goods for the customer requirement and the enterprise could cut back on cost also. In addition, these forecasting models can be beneficial to the other enterprise and will be effective depends on discipline in requirement planning and application to the context of the enterprise.